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Featured articlePublished by Vanessa Lee · 7 minute read

Understanding Suicide Risk: Why Timing, Data and Targeted Communication Matter

Suicide prevention in Australia requires precision more than just general awareness. Understanding who is most at risk, how patterns shift across communities, and when risk intensifies is essential for designing effective prevention strategies. National data reveals significant disparities across gender, age, culture, geography and season, offering critical insight into where communication must be focused. By combining this evidence with targeted, context-aware messaging, prevention efforts can reach people at moments when support is most needed.

Suicide prevention in Australia requires precision more than awareness. To meaningfully reduce harm, we need to understand who is most at risk, when risk increases, and how communication can reach people at moments that genuinely matter.

Current national data shows a complex and unequal picture. Some communities carry a far heavier burden, certain demographics are disproportionately affected, and risk fluctuates significantly across the year. These insights shape not only how we talk about suicide, but also how prevention strategies are planned, funded and delivered.

The Challenge: Understanding Who Is Most at Risk in Australia

In 2023, 3,214 Australians died by suicide, which is an average of nine deaths per day. While this number reflects a long-term decline since the 1960s, it also reveals significant inequalities across gender, geography, age and culture [1].

Men account for the majority of deaths

The male suicide rate has remained consistently higher than the female rate for over a century. In 2023, 2,419 men and 795 women died by suicide. Men not only represent the majority of deaths but also drive most year-to-year changes in overall national suicide rates [2].

Young women experience the highest self-harm hospitalisation rates

However, a different pattern emerges when it comes to intentional self-harm. Hospitalisation data shows that females experience higher rates than males, at 115 per 100,000 compared with 65 per 100,000, respectively. Differences in method, intent, and help-seeking behaviours likely contribute to this disparity, highlighting the importance of gender-responsive prevention strategies.

This trend is particularly pronounced among younger females. In 2023–24, females aged 15–19 recorded the highest hospitalisation rate for intentional self-harm, at 405 per 100,000, followed by females aged 20–24, at 253 per 100,000. These figures underscore the need to target interventions and support for young women, ensuring prevention efforts address the groups at greatest risk. [3].

Remote and very remote communities face higher risk and more barriers

People living in remote or very remote areas face geographic isolation, limited access to health services, and socioeconomic pressures, all of which compound the risk of higher suicide rates. In 2023–24, residents of very remote areas recorded 144 hospitalisations per 100,000 people, which is 70% higher than the rate in major cities (84 per 100,000) [4]. These figures highlight the urgent need for targeted prevention and support strategies in communities that experience both elevated risk and reduced access to care.

First Nations communities face disproportionate harm

In 2023, 265 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people died by suicide, with a rate more than 2.5 times higher than that of non-Indigenous Australians [1]. This stark disparity underscores the critical need for culturally informed, community-led prevention strategies that address the unique experiences and needs of First Nations communities.

Why it matters

These patterns reveal a simple truth: one-size-fits-all suicide prevention doesn’t work. Different groups experience risk at different times, in different ways, and for different reasons. Effective intervention means understanding these nuances and responding with targeted, evidence-led communication.

Convenience Advertising’s environment-based media model enables mental health messaging to be delivered with contextual relevance, reaching audiences in spaces where they are most receptive, such as bathrooms, parents’ rooms, hospitality venues, and airports. This approach supports gender-specific messaging, for example, campaigns focused on men’s mental health and suicide prevention, while also targeting parents through initiatives addressing postnatal depression. Messages frequently include QR codes linking directly to local support services or suicide prevention resources, allowing individuals to take discreet, immediate action in a private, low-distraction environment.

By combining contextual placement, audience specificity, and direct access to support, campaigns can connect with people at moments when they are more likely to pause, absorb information, and act, ensuring prevention messages reach the right people at the right time.

Is Holiday Suicide a myth?

One of the most persistent myths about suicide is the belief that rates spike during the December holiday season. However, research has shown that this myth spreads quickly each year, often reinforced unintentionally through media commentary and public assumption [5]. Long-term research shows that suicide risk follows seasonal patterns but not holiday periods.

Northern Hemisphere data: winter has the lowest rates

In the United States, December consistently sits among the lowest suicide months of the year. A 2023 Annenberg survey found 81% of U.S. adults incorrectly believe December has the highest suicide rates.

Southern Hemisphere data: the pattern flips with the seasons

Australia’s monthly suicide patterns have flipped. This pattern mirrors other Southern Hemisphere countries such as Brazil. The findings reveal that risk increases during warmer months, not during Christmas or New Year.

In Australia:
•    Suicide rates peak from November to March
•    January and February record the highest rates
•    The lowest rates occur in June, at the beginning of winter

Exploring other potential factors

Some researchers have investigated biological and environmental mechanisms that might influence seasonal variation in suicide. For example: 

  • An association between high tree pollen and non-violent suicides in women, potentially linked to immune system responses [6].
  • Cytokine therapies, which affect immune cell behaviour, have also been linked to suicide ideation in a small number of patients [7].
  • Sunlight exposure may influence mood and behaviour, although the evidence remains limited and would only affect a minority of individuals [8].

While these theories are preliminary, they highlight the complex interplay of biological, environmental, and seasonal factors in suicide risk, underscoring why prevention requires both accuracy and timing. Convenience Advertising reinforces the importance of aligning mental-health messaging with periods when risk is known to rise, ensuring support reaches people at the moments it can have the greatest impact.

Murray PHN Suicide Prevention Campaign

Against this national backdrop, targeted communication becomes essential. In 2025, Murray PHN partnered with Convenience Advertising to deliver a suicide-prevention initiative focused on engaging men, a group at consistently elevated risk, particularly in regional communities.

About the Campaign

A4 displays were displayed across key regional venues. This program aimed to encourage men to talk about their mental health and seek support early.

Why This Environment Worked

Men often face barriers including stigma, emotional isolation and reluctance to seek help.
Traditional awareness campaigns often struggle to reach them, especially in moments of quiet reflection.
By placing messages in private, high-dwell spaces, the campaign:

  • cut through noise and stigma
  • created a low-pressure moment for self-reflection
  • encouraged help-seeking by offering immediate, discreet access via QR codes

Impact

The program achieved strong QR code engagement, translating into verified impressions well above standard grassroots benchmarks. More importantly, the messaging resonated deeply with the target group, validating the importance of delivering suicide-prevention content in environments where men feel unjudged, unobserved, and receptive.

Precision Matters in Suicide Prevention

Suicide risk is complex, shifting across communities, ages, and seasons. The Murray PHN campaign shows the value of engaging men in discreet, thoughtful spaces where messages can resonate and inspire action. By tailoring outreach to real-world patterns and delivering support at pivotal moments, prevention efforts can be more meaningful, impactful, and ultimately save lives.

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References

[1] Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (n.d.). Suicide and intentional self-harm. https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/overview/summary
[2] Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (n.d.). Deaths by suicide over time. https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/overview/suicide-deaths
[3] Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (n.d.). Intentional self-harm hospitalisations. https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/overview/self-harm-hospitalisations
[4] Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (n.d.). Suicide and intentional self-harm hospitalisations among regional and remote communities. https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/population-groups/regional-remote-communities
[5] The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania. (2023, December 4). What’s behind the Holiday-Suicide myth. https://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/whats-behind-the-holiday-suicide-myth/#:~:text=news%20coverage%20of%20the%20holiday%2Dsuicide%20myth
[6] Postolache, T. T., Stiller, J. W., Herrell, R., Goldstein, M. A., Shreeram, S. S., Zebrak, R., Thrower, C. M., Volkov, J., No, M. J., Volkov, I., Rohan, K. J., Redditt, J., Parmar, M., Mohyuddin, F., Olsen, C., Moca, M., Tonelli, L. H., Merikangas, K., & Komarow, H. D. (2004). Tree pollen peaks are associated with increased nonviolent suicide in women. Molecular Psychiatry, 10(3), 232-235. https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.mp.4001620
[7] Lucaciu, L. A., & Dumitrascu, D. L. (2015). Depression and suicide ideation in chronic hepatitis C patients untreated and treated with interferon: prevalence, prevention, and treatment. PubMed, 28(4), 440–447. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26424594
[8] Geddes, L. (2022, February 24). The puzzling link between suicide and spring. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20170317-the-puzzling-link-between-suicide-and-spring